At 1600 CET, FIFA will announce the hosts of the 2018 and 2022 world cups. I mentioned this in a previous article.
Since my previous analysis, a few developments have occurred. The U.S. has pulled out of its 2018 bid. In return all the European countries have pulled out of their 2022 bid. This means that we know the following:
2018 will go to a European country; England, Portugal/Spain, Belgium/Netherlands/Luxembourg, and Russia.
2022 will go to either the US, Qatar, Korea, Japan, or Australia.
What’s your prediction then?
I’d like to change my previous prediction of Russia and the U.S. I believe that England will get 2018, and the U.S. will get 2022.
England last hosted the cup in 1966. They are overdue. Spain last hosted in 1982. As for the other countries, Benelux does have a strong bid and central location, but the 2006 cup was in Germany, relatively close to those countries. Russia I thought had a good chance, but I’m thinking now that FIFA is more concerned with money, not charity to small countries.
I think the U.S. will host in 2022 simply because the North American continent hasn’t hosted the cup since 1994, while Asia has in 2002. Australia would be an obvious contender if it hadn’t moved into the AFC a few years ago.
Why is that?
Well, I believe that FIFA wants to hold the 2026 or 2030 world cup in China. If it awards the hosting rights to any Asian country, that will be impossible, as any continent that hosts the world cup will be barred from bidding to the next two. (Examples: Europe hosted in 2006, so they were ineligible from bidding in 2010 or 2014. Africa hosted in 2010, so they were ineligible from bidding in 2014 and 2018.)
As all of the bids other than the U.S. are Asian, I think FIFA will give the hosting rights to the U.S, so that China (and Japan and Korea) can prepare a 2026 bid free of European and American competition.
So, let’s find out what happens later today and we’ll see if I was right.
GO USA and GO KOREA.